Fail to Plan, Plan to Fail — this saying couldn’t be more true for businesses, especially when it comes to sales. Sales forecasting should be on the top agenda of any entrepreneur, business owner, or e-commerce operator looking to grow their business strategically. It’s about more than just crunching numbers—it’s about intentionally planning your goals and aligning your operations to meet them. Don’t have targets for this year? Not sure if your monthly projections are realistic? Read on.
Fail to Plan, Plan to Fail
Sales forecasting is not a guarantee—it’s a guide. It provides insight into your likely sales outcomes based on current expectations, empowering you to make informed, data-driven decisions. If your forecast indicates a gap between expected performance and your goals, it highlights an opportunity to take proactive measures. Plan new campaigns, proactively reach out to clients, refine and adjust your strategies, and update your forecast to see how the new plan could impact your results. Remember, forecasting isn’t just about predicting the future—it’s about shaping it.
Sales forecasting helps establish what “good” or “bad” performance looks like, and it sets a baseline for your targets. It allows you to measure and track progress day by day, month by month, ensuring you’re constantly working toward your business objectives. After all, how can you manage what you don’t measure?
What Is Sales Forecasting?
Sales forecasting is the process of predicting future sales based on features such as historical data, market trends, and other key factors that may influence performance. It’s both a science and an art—blending analytical tools with business experience and intuition to create a reliable and actionable forecast and plan.
As a consultant, I have had the privilege to work with many organizations across different industries, but one of the first priorities is always - always - to first develop a solid sales forecasting model. It’s foundational groundwork for long-term success, ensuring that businesses can plan intentionally and proactively. The challenge, however, is that it isn’t a one-size-fits-all solution.
The problem is universal—all businesses need a reliable way to project future sales to drive decisions. But an appropriate solution varies greatly, depending on the complexity of the business and its reliance on forecasting accuracy. For example, businesses with high operational dependence on sales forecasts, such as delivery services, may require highly accurate, close to real-time forecasting models to effectively allocate resources. These businesses often rely on advanced demand and sales forecasting models, supported by dedicated teams to develop, test, deploy, and maintain these systems. Some of the models we have helped clients build and deploy include regression analysis, machine learning techniques, and a combination of machine learning & industry specific rule-based systems to fit unique client needs. Machine learning models are often a good option for businesses with large volume of data and could provide powerful forecast models.
On the other hand, for simply getting started, an easy, straightforward solution can already provide immense value. Starting with a practical spreadsheet model that uses only a few but important predictors—such as monthly seasonality or weekday trends—can be enough to get businesses into the habit of forecasting and tracking. For example, e-commerce businesses are often very seasonality driven and might observe relatively regular holiday-driven spikes end of year, while a brand that launches new products on Mondays might see sales peaks at the start of the week.
What’s important is identifying which factors (or predictors) are most relevant to your business. While jumping right into advanced models might sound appealing, a simpler solution with flexibility built-in for human feedback & adjustments may be more effective to start with and provide opportunities for the team to get in the habit and proactively plan business performance.
The key takeaway: whether your business is just starting out or highly data-driven, sales forecasting is essential. The complexity of your solution should match your business’s needs—sometimes, less is more. Getting started, even with a basic solution, sets the stage for better planning, growth, and decision-making.
How Do You Evaluate Your Forecasts?
Once you’ve created your sales projections, the next step is evaluating accuracy. A commonly used metric is MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error), which measures the error rate between your forecasted and actual sales.
However, what’s considered “good” or “bad” accuracy depends on your business context. Seasonal shifts, market dynamics, and other variables can all influence results. The key is to keep refining your approach as you gather more data and insights.
Get Started with Our Easy Sales Forecast Template
If you’re just getting started and ready to take control of your sales planning, our Easy Sales Forecast Template is a great starting point (use code Forecast2025! for 50% off - limited time only). Designed with simplicity and practicality in mind, this template provides an intuitive way to project your sales without getting bogged down in complexity. Simply enter your historical data (we recommend two years or at least one) and let the template handle the rest.
Key features:
- Seasonality: Factor in predictable monthly trends to make your forecasts more realistic.
- Tracks weekday patterns: See how sales fluctuate day by day for improved planning.
- User-friendly and customizable: Perfect for busy entrepreneurs and business owners.
- Automated actuals vs. forecast summary views with graphs for immediate insights
By using our template, you’ll be able to plan ahead, set realistic targets, and confidently steer your business toward growth.
Final Thoughts
Sales forecasting isn’t just about predicting numbers—it’s about making more strategic and informed decisions. Whether you’re running an e-commerce shop, managing inventory, or planning next year’s budget, proactive forecasting will help you stay ahead of the curve.
Get started today with our Easy Sales Forecast Template or get in touch for personalized 1:1 advisory - we would love to be part of your exciting analytics and business growth journey.